Tenerife vs Alcorcón prediction 11.12.2023

• Competition: La Liga 2
• Date: Monday, 11th December 2023
• Kickoff: 20:00 UK / 21:00 CET
• Venue: Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez López (Santa Cruz de Tenerife)

Tenerife are playing their 11th season in La Liga 2, where they were mostly a mid-table team with only two good seasons (in 2016/17 and 2021/22) when they managed to secure the playoffs. This year, after an excellent start when they were in the top five spots after 13 rounds, they went on a poor streak and dropped in the standing. Now, with a few good games, it seems they are gaining some momentum back. At this moment, they are 9th with 27 points, only three points away from the playoffs spot. Also, with a win over Deportivo La Coruna (after ET) in the last game, the popular Tete reached the Copa del Rey 1/16 Finals. 

After 12 seasons in La Liga 2, Alcorcon were relegated in the 2021/22 season to the third tier of Spanish football but gained an instant promotion and returned to La Liga 2. However, the current season doesn't look promising for Los Alfareros as they are 21st with 14 points, already six points away from the safe zone. The most alarming part about them is that it seems they are only getting worse as the season progresses, and there is very little to be optimistic about. In the last game, they were eliminated from Copa del Rey by the last-placed team in La Liga 2, Cartagena, which only worsened the situation for struggling Alcorcon. The club tried shaking things up by changing the coach, but they still failed to get a positive result in Copa del Rey under the new coach. 

Tenerife vs Alcorcon pick: Under 2.5 goals

Tenerife played almost exclusively low-scoring games at Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez López. From nine La Liga 2 games, they were only once over 2.5 goals. It was against Burgos (2:1), in a very strange match where we saw a red card and three penalties. So, we could easily see all nine games with fewer than three goals. Also, with only four goals allowed (0.44 per game), Tenerife have the best defensive home record, which is the primary reason for low-scoring games. 

Alcorcon are in terrible form, and their goalscoring form is even worse, as they failed to score in the last four games! So, it is very hard to expect a goal(s) against a team that has only allowed four goals so far at their stadium. 

From previous head-to-head games, it is evident these teams tended to play low-scoring matches. In the last seven h2h games, they were under 2.5 goals on six occasions - 85.7%. Considering the previous h2h games, Tenerife's excellent home defensive record, and terrible goalscoring form by Alcorcon, we think an under 2.5 goals bet is the safest option for this tie.