Estrela Amadora vs Arouca prediction 28.12.2023

• Competition: Liga Portugal
• Date: Thursday, 28th December 2023
• Kickoff: 20:15 UK / 21:15 CET
• Venue: Estádio José Gomes (Amadora)

Estrela Amadora played in the Liga Portugal 2 last season but managed to reach the playoffs and eventually won against Maritimo and earned promotion. This season, the Tricolores are doing very well, as they are 9th with 16 points after 14 rounds. Still, there is a four-point difference between them and the 17th-placed Gil Vicente, so ninth place looks a lot better than it actually is. Despite that good placement at the moment, Estrela have to be cautious because only a couple of bad results could slide them back to the relegation zone. 

Arouca are coming off a great season when they finished 5th, only behind Benfica, Porto, Braga, and Sporting. They even secured the Europa Conference League Qualifiers but were unable to secure the Group stage because Brann eliminated them. This season, Arouca had an atrocious start and were at the bottom of the league's table. Still, since they changed the coach around a month ago, they totally turned things around and haven't lost in the last four games in all competitions. Currently, they climbed to 14th place, two points away from the danger zone. We expect they will continue with good results and should climb further in the standings. 

Estrela Amadora vs Arouca pick: Under 2.5 goals

Despite being in 9th place, Estrela Amadora have the second-worst offense this season. So far, they have scored only 15 goals in 14 matches - 1.07 per game. Still, that low-scoring stats shouldn't surprise us because they have the lowest xG in the league at only 0.79. Because of that poor offense and good defense, Estrela were nine times under 2.5 goals in Liga Portugal - 64%. Also, in recent games, Tricolores played mostly low-scoring games and were under 2.5 goals in seven of the last nine games.

Throughout the season, Arouca were not impressive offensively, scoring 18 goals in 14 matches. In recent games, they had much better offensive displays, as they scored ten goals in the previous four games. Still, we have to mention that those were games against out-of-form teams and teams from the bottom of the league. Now, away from home, against a much better defensive team, we do not expect them to continue with dominant offensive displays. 

Considering everything above, we believe that an under 2.5 goals bet is the safest option for this tie.