Chelsea vs Sheffield United prediction 16.12.2023

• Competition: Premier League
• Date: Saturday, 16th December 2023
• Kickoff: 15:00 UK / 16:00 CET
• Venue: Stamford Bridge (London)

Chelsea are coming to this season after the worst one in the 21st century, as they finished 12th. It was a pure disaster for the Blues, and after bringing in Mauricio Pochettino and spending a massive amount of money in the transfer window, everyone expected them to be a lot better. However, that has not been the case, as they are once again in the 12th place with only 19 points from 16 games, already 11 away from the European spots. 

Sheffield United secured the Premier League by finishing 2nd in the Championship, but they failed to do a good job in the Summer transfer window, and most football experts said this squad might be a bit worse than last season's. The general impression is that they needed some experienced players used to playing at this level of competition, and their focus was on young upcoming players. For now, the Blades look like one of the three primary candidates for relegation, along with Burnley and Luton Town. At this moment, they are 20th, with only eight points in 16 games, five points away from the safe zone. Still, there are some signs of improvement for the Blades, as they won seven of their eight points in the last six rounds. 

Chelsea vs Sheffield United pick: Over 2.5 goals

Chelsea's defense has totally collapsed in recent games, as they allowed an incredible number of 14 goals in the last five matches - 2.8 per game! Primarily because of their poor defensive display in recent games, the Blues were over 2.5 goals in four of the last five games. On the other hand, offensively, Chelsea are generating good looks, but their finishing has not been the best. Still, that was mainly against much better teams. Against other teams from the danger zone, Luton Town and Burnley, Chelsea scored seven goals in two games, so we believe they are more than capable of scoring a few goals.

With 41 conceded goals, Sheffield United have by far the worst defensive record in the league. Because of it, they were 11 times over 2.5 goals in 16 rounds - 69%. 

In the previous five h2h games, we have seen four games with three or more goals. Even though Chelsea are a better team overall, we do not trust them enough to win this game by two (or more) goals difference after they lost three of the last four games, and Sheffield United played probably their best game of the season vs Brentford 1:0. Considering the previous h2h games, and everything above, we think that an over 2.5 goals bet is the safest bet for this tie.