Southampton vs Swansea City prediction 26.12.2023

• Competition: Championship
• Date: Tuesday, 26th December 2023
• Kickoff: 15:00 UK / 16:00 CET
• Venue: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

On Tuesday afternoon, promotion-chasers Southampton will welcome Swansea City at St. Mary's Stadium in Southampton in the 24th round of the Championship.

Southampton got relegated from the Premier League last season, and they are the primary candidates for promotion along with two other relegated teams, Leicester and Leeds. This season, the Saints had a disappointing start and went through a mini-crisis in September, where they lost four in a row. Still, after that terrible stretch, they have been absolutely great and easily climbed to the 4th place. Right now, with 45 points, they are seven points away from the desired 2nd place.

Swansea City are playing their sixth consecutive Championship season since getting relegated from England's top-flight division in the 2017/18 season. Last season, they went on a great run at the end of the season but missed the Playoff by three points regardless. This season, the Swans are having a poor season, as they are 16th with 28 points in 23 rounds. Because of that poor placement on the league's table, coach Michael Duff was sacked, and assistant coach Alan Sheehan took over the team on 4 December. Under the new coach, the Swans have a better point-per-match average than under Duff, but it is a very small sample of four games, so we cannot say there is a significant change. 

Southampton vs Swansea pick: Southampton to win and cover the -1 AH spread

Southampton are in excellent form, and looking only at the last ten games, the Saints are the best team in the league, ahead of Leicester City (two points) and Leeds United (one point). If it weren't for that bad start of the season, Southampton would surely be much closer to the direct promotion spots, but they are on the right track regardless, and we wouldn't be too surprised if they soon catch up with Ipswich, which showed signs of slowing down. 

Right now, Southampton are on a 15-game unbeaten run in the Championship, with a 67% win rate during that stretch. At home, the Saints won seven of 11 games in the Championship and are only getting better as the season progresses, as they have now won five in a row while keeping a clean sheet in the last three matches. 

Swansea City had mixed results in recent games and won just twice in the last nine games. But, if we look at their games against the teams from the top of the league (vs Leicester, Ipswich, Leeds, and West Brom), the Swans had no success and lost all four games while allowing three goals in every match. 

Considering Southampton's excellent form and Swansea's poor record against the top Championship teams, we believe that the Saints should secure a comfortable win at St. Mary's Stadium.