Fiorentina vs Torino prediction 29.12.2023

• Competition: Serie A
• Date: Friday, 29th December 2023
• Kickoff: 17:30 UTC / 18:30 CET
• Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Last season, Fiorentina had a very good season, but it could have been much better if they won either the Coppa Italia Finals vs Inter or the Europa Conference League Finals vs West Ham. In Serie A, they finished eight and missed Europe, but due to Juve's one-year ban by UEFA, Fiorentina got the opportunity to compete in Europe once again. This year, La Viola are doing great in all competitions and are 5th in Serie A, only one point away from the fourth spot and the Champions League. Also, in the Europa Conference League, La Viola have been great and secured the 1/8 Finals by finishing first in a group with Ferencvaros, Genk, and Cukaricki. Currently, according to bookies, Fiorentina are the 2nd-favorite (behind Aston Villa) to win the ECL title with 6.8 odds.

Torino are playing their 12th consecutive season where they were mostly a mid-table team. Last season was no different as they finished 10th, much closer to European spots than the relegation zone. Although it is still early, this season looks pretty similar to the last one as they are again tenth on the league's table and once again around 1.4 points per match. Currently, the popular Il Toro is in excellent form, with only one loss in the last eight Serie A games, but we have to take that streak with a pinch of salt because they had a pretty easy schedule.

Fiorentina vs Torino pick: Under 2.5 goals

In recent games, Fiorentina played only low-scoring games and were under 2.5 goals in the last four games in all competitions. Defensively, they have been solid throughout the season, but in recent two games, they impressed by keeping a clean sheet vs AC Monza and Verona - teams that have around the same offensive record as Torino. Also, offensively, La Viola have not been great during that last four-game stretch, as they scored one goal per game in all four matches. 

Torino had the fewest games with three or more goals in Serie A - only five in 17 rounds (29.4%). The primary reason for it is their terrible offensive record of 15 scored goals in 17 games. Only the two last-placed teams, Empoli and Salernitana, scored fewer goals than them. However, the defense are keeping them pretty high on the league's table. Additionally, just like Fiorentina, Torrino mostly played low-scoring recently and were under 2.5 goals in five of the last six games with an average of only 1.67 goals per game. 

In the previous season, both h2h games in Serie A finished with fewer than three goals. Considering the last h2h games, the fact that both teams have played mostly low-scoring games recently, and Torino's pretty poor offensive record throughout the season, we believe that an under 2.5 goals bet is the safest option for this tie.