Nice vs Toulouse prediction 26.11.2023

• Competition: Ligue 1
• Date: Sunday, 26th November 2023
• Kickoff: 12:00 UTC / 13:00 CET
• Venue: Allianz Riviera (Nice)

Nice have been in the upper half of the league's table in the previous eight seasons, securing Europe on four occasions. But this season started incredibly for Les Aiglons, and they are in 2nd place, just one point away from the 1st-placed PSG. We can see a similar pattern in Nice's results over the previous years. Whenever they play Europe, they struggle that season in Ligue 1. Last year, they finished 9th, and many football experts expected a somewhat better season, but surely no one expected them to be as good as they are currently. 

Toulouse had an interesting last season where they secured their first major trophy by winning the Cup. But objectively, they had a very easy route, avoiding all top teams. On the other hand, they were not great in the league, finishing 13th. This season, they are once again having a poor season in the domestic league as they are 14th, only one point away from the relegation playout. But in the Europa League, Les Violets are doing much better. With the latest win over Liverpool, Toulouse are 2nd with seven points after four rounds. 

Nice vs Toulouse pick: Nice to win and cover the -1 AH spread

Nice are having an excellent season and are the only undefeated team in Ligue 1 after 12 rounds. The primary reason for it is their incredible defensive record, as they have allowed only four goals so far - only 0.33 per game. In recent games, it looks like they are only getting better, considering they kept a clean sheet in the previous seven games! 

Toulouse won just four of 16 games in all competitions, but only one of those wins came away from home. That was in the first game of the season when they beat Nantes. But after that, they went on an eight-game winless streak away from home. 

Before the international break, Toulouse managed to secure two very good results as they won 3:2 at home vs Liverpool and drew 1:1 on the road with Lille. However, they were super lucky in those games, especially against Lille, where Lille had 2.62 xG and 14 goal attempts, compared to only 0.14 xG of Toulouse and two goal attempts. So, even though they secured good results, we cannot say they were as impressive as the results suggest.

Considering what we saw from Nice this season (especially on the defensive end) and Toulouse's poor road record, we expect Nice to win the upcoming game, possibly by a couple of goals difference.